Private equity briefing with Bob Keiser of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research for the week of 02-19-08 Private Equity...
Squawkbox market analysis with Mike Tarsala/Rachna Patel from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Rachna Patel.Generic drugmakers will be on our radar this week, as more traders and investors realize that generic drug makers could garner more than $67 billion in U.S. sales from big pharmaceutical companies between 2007 and 2012, as major drugs come off patent during this time-frame. The big generic drugmakers we track closely include Mylan, Inc. (MYL), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA), Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI), and Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BRL). Of all of them, Mylan may stand to benefit most from drugs coming off patent. Following the acquisition of Germanys Merck Generics back in October, it's now a truly global player.Mylan had to issue a ton of stock to get the deal done, but once this new issuance is absorbed and more renowned drugs come off patent, we would look for Mylan shares to gradually benefit from the shift. Mylan trades at only 11.2x forward earnings, a discount to the average industry multiple of 19.5x, with a long-term growth rate of more than 12%. And its year-over-year revenue growth of 40.8% is also above the Sub-Industry average of 34.4%. The average price target on Wall Street is $18.44, a premium to the recent $14.18.We note that pharmaceuticals are one of only 6 uptrending groups in the market right now, of the 39 we track. For more on Mylan and other specific trading ideas, visit Thomson Squawk Box.com. Squawkbox: On The...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Haley West from Thomson FinancialTranscript:This is a look at the week ahead from Thomson FX Hub. I'm Haley WestA quiet start to the week is expected with Swiss Retail Sales and US Industrial Production, but all eyes will be on Tuesday's FOMC announcement where a cut of 75 basis points is expected. Before the announcement on Tuesday we have inflation out of the UK and Canada, along with Housing Starts and the Producer Price Index from the US.With markets taking stock of the FOMC verdict, the highlight of the data agenda on Wednesday is the Unemployment report from the UK.Thursday kicks off with the UK Retail Sales, where it will be interesting to see if the UK Consumer can repeat it's strong showing from the previous month. In the US session we have the Philadelphia Fed Survey.Friday is a market holiday. FX: Week Ahead...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box Market Minute. I'm Danielle Morellino.Stocks appear likely to cut short the first multi-day rally of 2008, amid fresh concerns for financial companies, and the possibility that mortgage woes are spreading to auto loans and credit cards.Just before financial companies start reporting earnings, the Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that Merrill Lynch may take a $15 billion dollar fourth quarter writedown related to mortgage investments gone bad versus previous expectations of a $12 billion dollar writedown. Merrill is among several large banks that are looking for an influx of cash from overseas to rescue their balance sheets.And American Express became the second big credit card company to warn of slower consumer spending and an increase in late credit card payments. Capital One reported the same problems earlier this week, after it set aside more than a half-billion dollars to cover future unpaid credit card bills.Also captivating attention is Bank of America's bid for Countrywide for a 38 percent premium above its lowest price this week. See our Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar report for more details.We will be watching regional banks for potential upside, as takeover speculation grows. There's talk that JP Morgan is interest in buying Washington Mutual, and we would not be surprised to see Sun Trust and P.N.C. in the mix.Based on our Thomson Financial Trend Intensity studies, 30 of the 39 sectors we track are in downtrends, with more than half of those trends growing significantly more intense this week. The only uptrends are in defensive gold mining and health care shares.We are now watching the 1387 as the next area major of support level on the S&P 500 index, dating back to March 2007 lows.The small-cap Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq have been the market leaders to the downside in recent weeks. One stock in particular we'll be watching is Research in Motion, as doubts are growing that the company will be able to launch its BlackBerry RIMM's planned launch of the BlackBerry in China.Oil prices came under pressure as well late in the week, with crude trading below 94 dollars a barrel. The possibility of new oil coming on the market from Brazil and economic factors forcing slack demand could pressure the commodity next week.Until next week, I'm Danielle Morellino for Thomson Squawk Box .com. Squawkbox: Market...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Jamie Coleman from Thomson FinancialTranscript:This is FX Hub's Look at the week ahead, I'm Jamie ColemanWith the latest Fed cut out of the way, the market turns its attention toward Australia and Europe this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets November 6th, and is expected to deliver a 25 bp hike to six and three-quarters. Both the Bank of England and the ECB are expected to hold rates steady despite ongoing pressures in the structured finance sector. Both central banks retain inflation concerns. UK industrial production and service sector PMI are set for release on Monday with the US release non-manufacturing ISM later in the day. Continental Europe reports service sector purchasing managers indexes on Tuesday while retail sales are set for release from the Euro zone. Canada's Ivey PMI index is out later on Tuesday. Wednesday looks pretty quiet with German industrial production, the highlight. Action picks up Thursday with Employment reports in Australian and Switzerland as well as jobless claims in the US. Halifax house price data is out in the UK and Canadian housing starts and the new home price index are due to hit the wires. Friday sees trade reports from the UK, Europe, Canada and the US. Michigan consumer sentiment rounds out the week. That's our look at the events of the week ahead. Join us next time. FX: Week Ahead...
Private equity briefing with Bob Keiser of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research for the week of 01-22-08 Private Equity...
Chris Anselmo from Thomson Financial's Corporate Advisory Services group discusses subprime.Transcript:I'm Chris Anselmo, bringing you Thomson Financial's Corporate...
Squawkbox market analysis with Rachna Patel from Thomson Financial Squawkbox: On The...
Mergers and Acquisitions update with Richard Peterson of Thomson Financial's Proprietary Research for the week of 12-17-07 Merger Moment...
Mergers and Acquisitions update with Richard Peterson of Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research for the week of 06-09-08 Merger Moment...
Earnings update with Mike Thompson of Thomson Financial the week odf 10-15-07 Earnings Minute...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Jamie Coleman/Rachna Patel from Thomson Financial FX: Week Ahead...
Retail update with Jharonne Martis of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research for the week of 03-04-08 Retail Insight...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to this week's Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Danielle Morellino.Dillard's department store's earnings results are due out soon, and while the headline numbers are likely to be poor, its a stock that is trading near all-time low valuations, just ended its Trend Intensity downtrend, and is showing reversal potential based on a DeMark indicator.Count in the fact that activist shareholders are getting involved to try to get this stock going again, and we think Dillard's shares may bottom out soon. Unless the financial numbers are a total disaster, we think its a stock that value traders will start accumulating, especially if it dips to 2003 lows near $13 dollars.Dillards has seen very few positives in recent months, save for the February same-store sales that were slightly better than expectations. The overall trend has been dismal. The company gave downside revenue guidance last month for all of the fiscal year. The third-quarter call was a big earnings miss, as the retailer was hit with the triple-whammy of higher costs, decreasing comps, and the need to work off inventory. Gross margins were worse than expected, and the company was forced to take increased markdowns.The Thomson Ratings system ranks Dillard's a 2 overall, out of 10, with the lowest-possible earnings score. The stock clearly has many warts. But its valuation is not one of them. Dillard's bottomed in 2000 and 2003 at about half its book value, where it is trading again now. Valuation is the likely reason Dillards is now seeing activist shareholder interest. Barrington & Clinton owns about 5% of the stock and has requested a complete list of current shareholders, seemingly in preparation for communications with them ahead of the May annual meeting. It appears to us that the group is lining up ducks to try and win some of the four available board seats that come up for grabs, in an effort to unlock some of the shareholder value.For more details and for market intelligence and more trading ideas, visit Thomson Squawk Box Dot Com. Squawkbox: On The...
Squawkbox market analysis with John Forman from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Hi this is John Forman with your Squawkbox Market Minute.This morning's payroll figures came in well above expectations, but it'll probably take much more than this one item to alter the overall technical picture of the stock market. The recent action really has been decidedly weak since that fateful intraday reversal on October 11th. Transports haven't been anywhere close to following the broader market to new highs. Actually, to that point, the Russell 2000 never made a new high in line with the Dow and S&P, and yesterday's close was the lowest since mid-September. The long-term view is still a positive one, but the near-term outlook is otherwise. The approach we are taking to playing this market is one of selling into strength, especially in sectors like Retail, Financials, and Consumer Services.I'm John Forman. Tune in next week for another Squawkbox Market Minute Squawkbox: Market...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Haley West from Thomson ReutersTranscript:This is a look at the week ahead from Thomson FX Hub. I'm Haley WestThe week starts off on Monday with Japanese retail sales. This is followed by the Regional inflation data out of Germany which will be keenly watched by the ECB. After falls in French and German business confidence the Italian survey will be released.German retail sales gets the ball rolling on Tuesday. Followed by UK mortgage approvals and lending . US consumer confidence figures from the conference board is the last piece of data before the Federal Reserve meeting, where we expect rates to be cut by 25 basis points.A busy day on Wednesday starts off with Japanese Employment and Industrial output data, followed by Eurozone Retail sales and Unemployment from Germany and the Eurozone. Italian inflation rounds off the European morning. The North American session is dominated by the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth and Chicago PMI data.Thursday's European holiday means we only have the UK manufacturing PMI and US personal income and ISM data.Australian retail trade leads us off on Friday followed by PMI's from France, Germany and the Eurozone , before the day's data highlight the US Non Farm Payroll report. We finish the week with the US Factory orders.That's our look at the events for the week ahead. Log on to thomsonfxhub.com for more information. Have a good week, I'm Haley West. FX: Week Ahead...
Squawkbox market analysis with Mike Tarsala from Thomson FinancialTranscript:I'm Mike Tarsala and welcome to this week's Thomson Squawk Box Market Minute.The U.S. markets have come out of the consolidation mode we've been talking about for weeks, and it's now the big picture is a brutal one.Gold is much higher, oil is much higher, and the dollar much weaker... all negative influences on stocks.When we last spoke, we were about even with the number of stocks in uptrends vs. downtrends.We now have 23 sectors in downtrends out of the 39 that we track.The only sector of the 39 that's trending upward, according to our Trend Intensity studies, is gold. It's being driven higher by increasing market jitters.The Google's, BIDUs, and other high-beta tech names that led us on the way down were crushed this week. They have the potential to lead us on the way down.Our biggest worry is not financials at this point. It's the tech sector. If tech is no longer the Squawkbox: Market...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to this morning's Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Danielle Morellino.Billionaire value investor Eddie Lampert's multi-billion-dollar cut in his Citigroup stake is catching a lot of attention this morning. But we don't see this as a case of the smart money trader bailing on his financial holding.To the contrary, this may speak to his troubles in retail. We think this may be due to a portfolio shift stemming from his big losses in Sears Holdings, which closed below the psychologically important $100 mark in recent days. Sears shares have been in a very tight consolidation of late, and as a result, our proprietary Thomson Trend Intensity reading has reached a low trend ready level and flattened out. That means it's really poised to signal a new trend, so a break out from the current range is likely to produce an uptick, and potentially quite a few more after that.We'd anticipate a breakout to the downside.Nothing seems to be improving at Sears. Cash flows are reported to be dwindling. Sales are declining. Profit margins are sliding. And the advertising just seems absolutely silly. We laughed out loud at its advertising campaign for Valentine's Day, in which it gave away Craftsman T-shirts for buying Sears Valentine's Day gifts. For position traders, Sears has already had a monster move. But we see more downside ahead, and would look to short the name with a stop near 106 dollars, targeting a move to 80 dollars. That's roughly a 62% retrace of the move from 12 dollars in May of '03, where we would first start to look for signs of a turnaround.For more specific trading ideas and directional market commentary throughout the trading day, visit Thomson Squawk Box Dot Com. Squawkbox: On The...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to this week's Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Danielle Morellino.The market this week posted its first two-day rally of the new year, driven mostly by Bank of America's plan to buy Countrywide Financial (CFC) for a 38% premium from where it traded earlier this week.We at Thomson Squawk Box have been hearing Bank of America for Countrywide takeover chatter since May 2007, back when Countrywide traded at 42 dollars a share, or more than five times its current market value.The price paid represents about two-months' worth of profit for Bank of America.The last blockbuster mortgage buyout, Golden West Financial in 2006, came at a price of nearly 3 times book value. Bank of America plans to pay les than a third of Countrywide's book value.Countywide shares score a 9 out of a possible 10 based on valuation, on the Thomson Ratings scale. Earlier this week, Countrywide shares sank to a 12-year low.On Wall Street, reaction to the deal is negative. The worry is that Bank of America is piling good money into a bad idea that will crimp earnings. And many are concerned about Bank of America taking on Countywide's legal liabilities.Yet we think that at a time when the major banks are taking huge writedowns, Bank of America's management believes it's in a strong position. Otherwise, they wouldn't take on the deal.And we think that the price is right.Mortgage defaults may continue to surge. This takeover is not likely to be as successful as Bank of America's more recent purchases, such as La Salle Bank or MBNA. Yet this takeover could work over the long term, letting BofA sell additional banking products to those shopping for a home.For Thomson Squawk Box.com, I'm Danielle Morellino Squawkbox: On The...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson ReutersTranscript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box Market Minute, I'm Danielle Morellino.The equity index futures are signaling a higher opening as bulls attempt to build on Thursday's gains, driven by optimism that bank stocks have seen the worst, and ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.Thursday's news that Merrill left is dividend unchanged and Credit Suisse cut its exposure to risk continues to prop up the financials. We would expect the Nasdaq to lag the other indices a bit today following the disappointing Microsoft sales and guidance. But financials may be strong, especially after Merrill (MER) said it's in talks with TPG, providing it yet another potential source of capital.From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 managed to penetrate and hold the 1387 resistance level Thursday, paving the way for a push toward 1415 (200-Day Exp. Moving Average/trend-line resistance going back to the October highs). The near-term point of control is also in the same vicinity at 1410, so that general level presents the major resistance.But the first hurdle to overcome will be 1395, the February highs. Should the recent strength fade, we are targeting support at the aforementioned 1387-level, followed by 1378, and 1368.The worry is market breadth. Small caps moved up faster than the large cap indices on Thursday, but that has not been the theme recently. In terms of relative strength, the Russell 2000 has been underperforming the Russell 1000 ever since March 26. That is not the standard way of mounting a sustainable uptrend.For Thomson Squawk Box, I'm Danielle Morellino. For more market and individual stock analysis based on our proprietary data and indicators, visit Thomson Squawk Box.com. Squawkbox: Market...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson ReutersTranscript:Welcome to the Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Danielle Morellino.One of the individual names on our radar this week is the Andersons, a stock near the bottom of a long trading range that just reported a quarterly miss we think is unlikely to be repeated.The grains, ethanol and rail player missed earnings estimates by $0.16 when it reported earlier this month. The quarter was wrecked by a particularly tough March due to high input cost that were exacerbated by the company's hedging strategy. Basis widened from where the company put on its hedge for the grain in its elevators, which caused an$11 mln pretax loss. As a result, Q1 operating income was far lower than the year-ago period.There is often the risk of a hedging strategy problem with a company like ANDE. And in this quarter, the cash markets wheat and other grains did not rise at the same pace as the futures market, which led to the hedging issue.But on the company call, management made it clear to analysts that it expects to regain the majority of the basis loss it suffered. The company says that time is already helping the basis to adjust, as wheat prices have come down, and cash and futures prices for wheat are now closer in line. Our take is that it was a lightening strike that likely won't happen again any time soon.What was lost amid headlines about the big EPS miss is that the company provided upside guidance for the fiscal year, despite the hedging debacle. Some traders seem to believe that the ethanol story is over, with less corn acreage expected to be planted next year, and the threat of eventual competition from Brazilian companies that can ship ethanol to the U.S. and sell it at lower prices. Still, we think ethanol prices will rise in coming months. In addition to its exposure to the ethanol market, ANDE has a strong fertilizer business that its building on with its acquisition of Douglas Fertilizer. The deal is expected to add to earnings this year. We think fundamentals in the fertilizer business remain extremely strong, with prices for some fertilizer types doubling from year-ago levels.Andersons also just raised its dividend 10% to 8.5 cents a share.Valuation wise, the stock has exposure to some very attractive markets, yet trades near 11x forward earnings, near a 5-year trough, and vs. a 5-year average P/E of more than 16x. And it also has valuation support near 9x earnings, where it bottomed in August and December 2004.The timing seems right for an ANDE long trade. At minimum, it's one you need to put on your radar.For the Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report, I'm Danielle Morellino. Visit Thomson Squawk Box Dot Com for facts, data and insights on stocks you won't find anywhere else. Squawkbox: On The...
Squawkbox market analysis with Haley West from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Haley West.Teen apparel retailer Zumiez , with 41% short interest and 12 days to cover, got a big squeeze of as much as 17% overnight after it beat by $0.04; we had been pointing out in our earnings preview last night that a squeeze was possible on any hint of good news.That said, we suspect that after the initial reaction, shorts will come in and try to fade the big rally, due to strong guidance that is very back-end loaded toward the second half of the year. The company is calling for 2008 EPS in the range of 90 to 93 cents, in-line with Thomson estimates. It also sees a low-single-digit same-store sales gain.It almost appears to us that Zumiez is trying to shake the shorts. There has been a lot of monthly volatility in the company's monthly same-store sales numbers, with big misses for a few quarters, then a big miss the next. That usually calls for management widening the guidance range, versus sticking to the number the Street is expecting.Valuation wise, Zumiez is arguably inexpensive based on its growth rate. It ranks 10 out of 10 for valuation on the Thomson Ratings system, which relies heavily on Peg ratio. But after its overnight gap, its forward P/E near 18 vs. 15 times for its peer group, so its not exactly a bargain.We see continued volatility for Zumiez. Expect upside as some shorts lighten up. But there is significant resistance near $17.50, as well as valuation that begins to get a bit too steep at that price. With the ask on the stock this morning at $16.90, watch out for the fade.For market insights and intraday stock calls from our expert team, visit Thomson Squawk Box Dot Com. Squawkbox: On The...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Jamie Coleman/Rachna Patel from Thomson FinancialTranscript:This is the FX Hub look at the week ahead, I'm Rachna PatelCentral bank rate decisions are the main events of the first week in December with the Bank of Canada, Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand, Bank of England and European Central Bank all scheduled to meet. Cuts from the Bank of Canada and Bank of England are distinct possibilities. The health of the US Manufacturing sector will be assessed on Monday as the Institute for Supply Management releases its monthly index. A dip to 50.5 is expected, down from 50.9 in December. Manufacturers hope that export orders can shore up slipping domestic demand. Australian retail sales and the first central bank decision of the week come on Tuesday the fourth. Service sector purchasing managers indexes are out in the US and Europe on Wednesday while European retail sales are set for release as well. Thursday, Japan reports its index of leading economic indicators early in the day while the Bank of England and ECB unveil their rate decisions early in the European afternoon. Expect the ECB to hold rates steady as surging inflation and the affects of the credit crunch offset one another near-term. The credit crunch could force the BOE to cut as soon as Thursday with UK banks heavily exposed to mortgage market turmoil and the UK housing market beginning to look very toppy. Employment reports in the US and Canada are likely to be the main drivers of trade on Friday, especially of the North American labor markets show a pronounced slowdown. The markets will continue to price-in further central bank cuts ahead if the job market looks weak. That's our look at the week ahead. For more, log on to Thomson FX Hub.com FX: Week Ahead...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Jamie Coleman from Thomson Financialwww.thomsonfxhub.comTranscript: This is FX hub's look at the week ahead: I'm Jamie ColemanThe mid-week FOMC meeting is this week's main event, but there is economic data galore, especially late in the week. Japanese retail sales and UK Mortgage lending data are set for release Monday the 29th. The mortgage data will be particularly interesting as the Northern Rock fiasco unfolded during the month of September, the first UK bank-run in over 100 years. Both Japanese and Eurozone unemployment reports are out on Tuesday, as are German retail sales. Wednesday will be a busy day with business and consumer sentiment from the Eurozone set for release. In addition, UK consumer sentiment hits the wires. Canadian GDP will be watched to see if the strong Loonie slowed growth in August. We get the first look at third quarter US GDP on Wednesday. A respectable 3.1% annual growth rate is expected, though slower growth is seen in the fourth quarter. The BOJ meets Wednesday, but no change in rates is expected. A 25 bp hike from the Fed is priced in from the on Halloween, however. Soft housing markets remain a concern for the Fed, as do still illiquid markets for exotic mortgage bonds. European centers are closed for All Saints Day on Thursday, but purchasing managers data will be released in both the US and UK.Friday sees European manufacturing data while the US and Canada unveil employments reports. That's our look at a busy week ahead. For FX Hub, I'm Jamie Coleman FX: Week Ahead...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box Market Minute. I'm Danielle Morellino.Our Squawk Box team is expecting a much a higher stock open driven by Microsoft's offer for Yahoo at a 62 percent premium, which is overshadowing last night's poor Google earnings, and the usual jitters ahead of the weekly employment report, due later this morning.It helps that European shares are trading higher, after reports that BNP Pare E Baw was contemplating a bid for rival bank Sock Gen. And Chinalco and Alcoa said Friday that they've acquired a 12% stake miner in Rio Tinto, reviving speculation that RIO will make a counter-offer for BHP.Troubled bond insurers also are getting a boost, after 8 banks have formed a group to seek a bond insurance rescue. MBIA and Ambac are up more than 12 percent in early trading.Later in the session, traders will try to digest another round of key earnings reports, including results from Automatic Data Processing, ExxonMobil, Nymex Holdings and Tidewater.Our Trend Intensity studies show a continually improving market landscape from last week's trough. Homebuilders and transports are the standout sectors, and the only ones uptrending out of the 39 we cover. There are 12 total downtrending sectors from that group, but half of them could lose those trends in today's session. The remainder of the groups are consolidating, along with the major U.S. market indices.The sectors to watch are brokers, miners, leisure and entertainment, retail and steel, as all of them are at Trend Ready levels. They are the groups where we're focusing our search for individual stock trading opportunities.From a technical perspective, we see the 1410 to 1415 area on the cash S&P as the next major level of price attraction for the S&P. Unless government data is very poor, we expect little trouble staying above support at 1387.For additional trading ideas, email tsbsales at thomson dot com, to find out more about the Squawk Box equity service.For Thomson Squawk Box, I'm Danielle Morellino. Squawkbox: Market...
The week ahead in the FX Markets with Haley West from Thomson FinancialTranscript:This is the FX Hub look at the week ahead. I'm Haley West. Another frantic week in the markets is expected following on the heels of last week's volatility. Central bank meetings will dominate the calendar, but there are significant economic releases scheduled as well. Australia is expected to show another trade deficit for December on Monday. It also reports home price data.Eurozone producer prices and factory orders from the US are out later in the session. The reserve bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to try and cool inflation with another 25 bp hike. Service-sector purchasing managers reports from the Eurozone UK and US are due as well, along with retail sales for the Eurozone. Mostly second tier data is set for release Wednesday. Non-farm productivity and unit labor costs are out from the US while building permits and Ivey PMI are scheduled in Canada.Thursday should be the most action-packed session of the week. The Bank of England and ECB both meet. The Old Lady, as the BOE is known, is expected to trim rates 25 basis points to five and a quarter percent. The ECB is unlikely to adjust rates or even moderate its hawkish stance. Eurozone inflation data remains robust and while European data has been tilted to the downside of late, it is probably not weak enough to prompt Monsieur Trichet to moderate his stance. Friday rounds out the week with German trade figures the morning highlight. Canadian employment is eagerly awaited after last month's unexpected drop in new jobs. Inventories are the only data due from the US Friday. That's our preview of the week ahead. For more, log on to Thomson FX Hub.com. I'm Haley West. FX: Week Ahead...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson Reuters Transcript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box Market Minute. I'm Danielle Morellino.Stocks are pointing to a lower open Friday, setting up a likely flirtation with 1387 support on the S&P, as oil surges past $125 and financials generate selling pressure after AIG disclosed a much wider loss and made plans to raise more capital.AIG has an important conference call this morning and Citigroup has an analyst meeting in which it will update its restructuring efforts. Both may help determine if the XLF really did put in a bottom on March 21st, or if further pain is likely later in the year. The near-term picture for that key sector favors the bears, with a move down to at least the April lows around $24.50 looking likely.We did no additional damage on the S&P Thursday, but we threaten to do so. It would take a rally near 1400 to begin to return to an uptrend. The enulfing pattern on the weekly charts of the S&P , the Dow and the Russell continue to paint a bleak near-term picture for early May.Breadth numbers improved a bit yesterday. The McClellan Oscillator did not cross down below its zero point. But it appears to be delaying an eventual crossover. And while A-D improved a tiny bit, the number of 52 week lows is now nearly 4 times the highs on the Nasdaq, and bearish MACD crossovers are outnumbering bullish ones by roughly 4 to 1.From a TSB Trend Intensity perspective, the key to watch is the Russell, as we are close to getting a downtick signal. The significance is that the Russell has lagged in the uptrend, but it had been a leader early in the year when we were downtrending toward the March lows. We'd see a Russell signal as a warning sign that it could revert back to its leadership status on the downside.For Thomson Squawk Box Dot Com, I'm Danielle Morellino. Visit our Web site for more expert directional commentary and real-time trading and trend analysis. Squawkbox: Market...
Squawkbox market analysis with Danielle Morellino from Thomson FinancialTranscript:Welcome to the Thomson Squawk Box On the Radar Report. I'm Danielle MorellinoGeneral Electric's reported its first earnings miss since 2005 this morning, and it's become a meaningful negative catalyst for the equities markets. The company blamed weakness in the financial sector for its woes.About 5 cents of GEs 7-cent earnings miss was related to financial services. Operating income for the commercial finance group fell 20 percent. In our view, weakness in GEs financial business should not be a big surprise. But what is a big disappointment is that GE's diversification did not help it avoid such a big EPS miss.GEs many other operations are supposed to help make up for the financials weakness, but all of its other assets including its industrial group, health care, and the NBC Universal business they resulted in a collective 2-cent miss. We would expect them to beat expectations.As usual, GE's infrastructure business remains strong, with revenue up 23 percent, and operating income up 17 percent. But the rest was a big disappointment, with NBC Universal posting just 1 percent revenue growth; it ranks No. 4 among all the big networks in almost all ratings categories.What happens if high oil price start eating into aerospace orders, bringing down the industrial group as well?There are a few potential catalysts for GE going forward, most notably the renewal of energy tax credits that should boost its wind energy business.But none are big enough to turn around this massive ship.Value investors have been waiting for one or two of GEs groups outside of industrials to show a glimmer of a turnaround. But that remains elusive. And until that happens, GE appears to be a value trap, despite trading for less than 14 times forward earnings.We are not seeing signs of a turnaround for any of GEs business groups. And we have little reason to think the stock can't fall further. Our Baseline Graham & Dodd valuation for GE suggests a fair value of $29 dollars a share.For Thomson Squawk Box, I'm Danielle Morellino. Squawkbox: On The...
Thompson Financial on Credit Default Swaps. http://www.youtube.com/user/ThomsonFinancial Credit Default...
Alana Hartley from Thomson Reuters' Corporate Advisory Services group discusses REITTranscript:Quite often we hear about REITs being traded on the stock exchange, or included in mutual funds. But what, exactly is a REIT?? My name is Alana Hartley, and today I'm going to explain to you about REITs. R-E-I-T is the acronym for Corporate...
Mike Thompson of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research discusses the stability of the equities market and the economy. Thought of the...
Private equity briefing with Bob Keiser of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research for the week of 10-29-07 Private Equity...
Glenn Curtis from Thomson Financial's Corporate Advisory Services group discusses Crisis Communications Corporate...
Mike Thompson of the Thomson Propriteary Research group talks about the liquidity in the fixed income market. Mike Thompson:...
Private equity briefing with Bob Keiser of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research for the week of 01-14-08 Private Equity...
Private equity briefing with Bob Keiser of Thomson Financial Proprietary Research for the week of 11-12-07 Private Equity...

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